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Correlation
of values
-52%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
599
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~27% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-52%
Based on values
95% CI
-58% → -46%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
599 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,501
700
Normalized
12,501
700
Prepared
601
700
Aligned
599
599
Invalid removed
R²(i)
26.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
599
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-52%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
599 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-52%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+3%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-29%
20 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
103
A: 2 / B: 101
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,501 raw → 601 prepared
Series B
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 700 raw → 700 prepared
Sign agreement
83.5%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.4579
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
5.2224
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_fred-t10y2y_monthly_5y