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Correlation
of values
+56%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
98
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~31% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Sticky Price CPI moves ~11 months before Secured Overnight Financing Rate
Watch Sticky Price CPI for an early read on Secured Overnight Financing Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+56%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
98 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
2,061
701
Normalized
2,061
701
Prepared
100
701
Aligned
98
98
Invalid removed
31%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
98
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-11 months
Correlation at this shift
+89%
+34% stronger than no-shift baseline
Sticky Price CPI shifted 11 months later. Reads: "Does Secured Overnight Financing Rate today line up with Sticky Price CPI 11 months ago?"
87 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+56%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-11 months
+89%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+38%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+42%
22 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-27%
52 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
605
A: 2 / B: 603
Series A
Secured Overnight Financing Rate
SOFR
FRED · 2,061 raw → 100 prepared
Series B
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 701 raw → 701 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3933
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.4647
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_fred-sofr_monthly_5y