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Correlation
of values
+85%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
178
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~73% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Overnight Reverse Repo moves ~5 months before Sticky Price CPI
Watch Overnight Reverse Repo for an early read on Sticky Price CPI.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
57%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+85%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
178 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
3,277
701
Normalized
3,277
701
Prepared
180
701
Aligned
178
178
Invalid removed
73%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
178
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
+92%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
Sticky Price CPI shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Overnight Reverse Repo today line up with Sticky Price CPI 5 months from now?"
149 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+85%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
+92%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+59%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+29%
50 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
70 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
525
A: 2 / B: 523
Series A
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,277 raw → 180 prepared
Series B
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 701 raw → 701 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0016
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.3317
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_fred-rrpontsyd_monthly_5y