SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
Overview
Relationship
These move together about 56% of the time
Strong enough to use as a signal — read the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Read
When one moves up, the other tends to follow.
The saved window keeps correlation, overlap, alignment, and freshness anchored to the same computed record.
What to Watch
Overnight Reverse Repo moves ~5 months before Sticky Price CPI (ex Food & Energy)
Watch Overnight Reverse Repo for an early read on Sticky Price CPI (ex Food & Energy).
Decouples in drawdowns
Correlation weakens when both fall (+6%) vs when both rise (+26%) — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
+91%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Sticky Price CPI (ex Food & Energy) shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Overnight Reverse Repo today line up with Sticky Price CPI (ex Food & Energy) 5 months from now?"
171 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+86%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
+91%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+26%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+6%
54 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-32%
77 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
Corr
+86%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+81% → +89%
Likely range
R²
73.1%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
56.0%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
176
Usable
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
176 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
3,233
699
Normalized
3,233
699
Prepared
178
699
Aligned
176
176
Invalid removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
525
A: 2 / B: 523
Series A
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,233 raw → 178 prepared
Series B
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 699 raw → 699 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0016
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
2.3208
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 6 hours ago · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_fred-rrpontsyd_5y
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.