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Correlation
of values
+37%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
701
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
701 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
701
708
Normalized
701
708
Prepared
701
708
Aligned
701
701
Invalid removed
14%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
701
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
701 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+97%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+81%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-87%
19 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
7
A: 0 / B: 7
Series A
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 701 raw → 701 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 708 raw → 708 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
24
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.2122
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-5.3795
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_fred-recprousm156n_monthly_5y