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Correlation
of values
+65%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
663
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~42% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+65%
Based on values
95% CI
+60% → +69%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
663 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
699
2,887
Normalized
699
2,887
Prepared
699
665
Aligned
663
663
Invalid removed
R²(i)
41.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
663
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+65%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
663 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+65%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+51%
69 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+49%
79 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
101 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
38
A: 36 / B: 2
Series A
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 699 raw → 699 prepared
Series B
Chicago Financial Conditions
NFCI
FRED · 2,887 raw → 665 prepared
Sign agreement
29.6%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
23
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2407
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.0128
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_fred-nfci_monthly_5y