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Correlation
of values
-8%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
316
These move opposite each other about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~1% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
USD/VES Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Sticky Price CPI
Watch USD/VES Exchange Rate for an early read on Sticky Price CPI.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-8%
Based on values
95% CI
-19% → +3%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
316 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
700
6,606
Normalized
700
6,606
Prepared
700
317
Aligned
316
316
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.7%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
316
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+60%
+52% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/VES Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Sticky Price CPI today line up with USD/VES Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
298 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-8%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+37%
64 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
155 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
385
A: 384 / B: 1
Series A
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 700 raw → 700 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 317 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-39268.4927
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
200006.9201
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_fred-dexvzus_monthly_5y