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Correlation
of values
+47%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
665
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~22% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
NZD/USD Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Sticky Price CPI
Watch NZD/USD Exchange Rate for an early read on Sticky Price CPI.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+47%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
665 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
701
13,901
Normalized
701
13,901
Prepared
701
667
Aligned
665
665
Invalid removed
22%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
665
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+60%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
NZD/USD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Sticky Price CPI today line up with NZD/USD Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
647 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+60%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-19%
8 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-25%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-53%
16 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
38
A: 36 / B: 2
Series A
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 701 raw → 701 prepared
Series B
NZD/USD Exchange Rate
DEXUSNZ
FRED · 13,901 raw → 667 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0388
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.5669
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_fred-dexusnz_monthly_5y