Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
-37%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
556
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~13% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-37%
Based on values
95% CI
-44% → -29%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
556 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
700
11,628
Normalized
700
11,628
Prepared
700
557
Aligned
556
556
Invalid removed
R²(i)
13.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
556
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-37%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
556 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-37%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
78 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-8%
70 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-22%
101 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
145
A: 144 / B: 1
Series A
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 700 raw → 700 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 557 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.8426
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
10.6900
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_fred-dexsfus_monthly_5y