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Correlation
of values
+42%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
376
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~18% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
USD/BRL Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Sticky Price CPI
Watch USD/BRL Exchange Rate for an early read on Sticky Price CPI.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+42%
Based on values
95% CI
+34% → +50%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
376 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
700
7,868
Normalized
700
7,868
Prepared
700
377
Aligned
376
376
Invalid removed
R²(i)
17.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
376
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+56%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/BRL Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Sticky Price CPI today line up with USD/BRL Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
358 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+23%
66 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+9%
57 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
126 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
325
A: 324 / B: 1
Series A
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 700 raw → 700 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 377 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.6092
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1.2403
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_fred-dexbzus_monthly_5y