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ConocoPhillips (COP) vs St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Correlation
of % moves
-23%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
weeksweeks · through 2026-22
259
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~5% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-23%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-34% → -11%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
259 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,692
Normalized
1,255
1,692
Prepared
261
1,692
Aligned
259
259
Invalid removed
R²(i)
5.3%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
259
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-23%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
258 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-23%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-23%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+18%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-18%
41 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-66%
138 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,435
A: 2 / B: 1433
Series A
ConocoPhillips (COP)
COP
Stock · 1,255 raw → 261 prepared
Series B
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,692 raw → 1,692 prepared
Sign agreement
8.9%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.9904
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0052
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-stlfsi4_stock-cop_weekly_5y