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COP vs FRetail SalesConocoPhillips (COP) vs Retail Sales
Correlation
of % moves
+43%
In sync
of periods
62%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
59
These move in the same direction about 62% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~19% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
62%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+43%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+19% → +62%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
415
Normalized
1,253
415
Prepared
61
415
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
58 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+18%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+31%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
358
A: 2 / B: 356
Series A
ConocoPhillips (COP)
COP
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Retail Sales
RSAFS
FRED · 415 raw → 415 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0594
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0033
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-rsafs_stock-cop_monthly_5y