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Coherent Corp. (COHR) vs Nonfarm Payrolls
Correlation
of % moves
-18%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
57
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~3% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Nonfarm Payrolls moves ~18 months before COHR
Watch Nonfarm Payrolls for an early read on COHR.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-18%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-42% → +9%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
57 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,207
1,048
Normalized
1,207
1,048
Prepared
58
1,048
Aligned
57
57
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
3.1%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
57
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-46%
+28% stronger than no-shift baseline
Nonfarm Payrolls shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Coherent Corp. (COHR) today line up with Nonfarm Payrolls 18 months ago?"
25 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-18%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-33%
30 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
1 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-41%
24 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
992
A: 1 / B: 991
Series A
Coherent Corp. (COHR)
COHR
Stock · 1,207 raw → 58 prepared
Series B
Nonfarm Payrolls
PAYEMS
FRED · 1,048 raw → 1,048 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0022
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0015
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-payems_stock-cohr_monthly_5y