Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of % moves
-49%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2025-10
18
These move opposite each other about 59% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~24% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
CNP moves ~6 months before Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Watch CNP for an early read on Debt-to-GDP Ratio.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
58.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-49%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-79% → -1%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
18 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
240
Normalized
1,255
240
Prepared
61
240
Aligned
18
18
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
23.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
18
Limited
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -7 to 7 months.
Selected shift
+6 months
Correlation at this shift
+64%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
Debt-to-GDP Ratio shifted 6 months earlier. Reads: "Does CNP today line up with Debt-to-GDP Ratio 6 months from now?"
11 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+6 months
+64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-89%
7 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
265
A: 43 / B: 222
Series A
CNP
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Debt-to-GDP Ratio
GFDEGDQ188S
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.0802
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0041
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-gfdegdq188s_stock-cnp_monthly_5y