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CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) vs USD/VES Exchange Rate
Correlation
of % moves
-4%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
daysdays · through 2026-05-15
1,238
These move opposite each other about 52% of the time
Their swing sizes barely line up — almost no shared pattern.
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Mostly stable
The relationship drifts a little but stays in the same neighbourhood.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-4%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-10% → +1%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,238 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
6,606
Normalized
1,254
6,606
Prepared
1,254
6,606
Aligned
1,238
1,238
Invalid removed
R²(i)
0.2%
Variance explained
Significance
n.s.
Statistical confidence
Data points
1,238
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-4%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,237 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-4%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-4%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-13%
109 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-40%
21 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-11%
119 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
5,384
A: 16 / B: 5368
Series A
CMS Energy Corporation (CMS)
CMS
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
USD/VES Exchange Rate
DEXVZUS
FRED · 6,606 raw → 6,606 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.4546
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0069
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-dexvzus_stock-cms_daily_5y