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CME Group Inc. (CME) vs Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Correlation
of % moves
-32%
In sync
of periods
31%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-03
58
These move in the same direction about 31% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~10% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
31.5%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-32%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-53% → -6%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
706
Normalized
1,254
706
Prepared
60
706
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
10.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-32%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
57 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-32%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-11%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-52%
40 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
650
A: 2 / B: 648
Series A
CME Group Inc. (CME)
CME
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 706 raw → 706 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-7.3207
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.1060
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-recprousm156n_stock-cme_monthly_5y