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Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) vs Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
Correlation
of % moves
-39%
In sync
of periods
41%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
60
These move in the same direction about 41% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~15% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
41%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-39%
Based on % moves
95% CI
-59% → -15%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
60 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
1,292
Normalized
1,254
1,292
Prepared
61
1,292
Aligned
60
60
Invalid removed
R²(i)
15%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-39%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
59 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-39%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-39%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+33%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-2%
9 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-68%
35 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,233
A: 1 / B: 1232
Series A
Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL)
CL
Stock · 1,254 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Aaa Corporate Bond Yield
AAA
FRED · 1,292 raw → 1,292 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.4314
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0156
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-aaa_stock-cl_monthly_5y