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Correlation
of values
+41%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
940
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~17% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+41%
Based on values
95% CI
+35% → +46%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
940 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
940
965
Normalized
940
965
Prepared
940
965
Aligned
940
940
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
16.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
940
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+41%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
940 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+41%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+41%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-6%
8 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
25
A: 0 / B: 25
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 940 raw → 940 prepared
Series B
Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate
WTISPLC
FRED · 965 raw → 965 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
19
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
4.2307
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-236.2811
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-civpart_fred-wtisplc_monthly_5y