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Correlation
of values
-43%
In sync
of periods
48%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
498
These move in the same direction about 48% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~19% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
48%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-43%
Based on values
95% CI
-50% → -36%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
498 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
942
15,218
Normalized
942
15,218
Prepared
942
500
Aligned
498
498
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
498
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-43%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
498 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-43%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-43%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+85%
15 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+32%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-63%
49 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
446
A: 444 / B: 2
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 942 raw → 942 prepared
Series B
US Economic Policy Uncertainty
USEPUINDXD
FRED · 15,218 raw → 500 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
82
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-17.7446
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
1271.0834
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-usepuindxd_monthly_5y