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Correlation
of values
+44%
In sync
of periods
53%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
532
These move in the same direction about 53% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~20% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
10-Year Real Interest Rate moves ~18 months before Labor Force Participation
Watch 10-Year Real Interest Rate for an early read on Labor Force Participation.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
53.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+44%
Based on values
95% CI
+37% → +51%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
532 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
940
533
Normalized
940
533
Prepared
940
533
Aligned
532
532
Invalid removed
R²(i)
19.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
532
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+56%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
10-Year Real Interest Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with 10-Year Real Interest Rate 18 months ago?"
507 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+44%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-4%
20 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+4%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-34%
38 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
409
A: 408 / B: 1
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 940 raw → 940 prepared
Series B
10-Year Real Interest Rate
REAINTRATREARAT10Y
FRED · 533 raw → 533 prepared
Sign agreement
95.3%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
22
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.4557
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-27.1566
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-civpart_fred-reaintratrearat10y_monthly_5y