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Correlation
of values
+50%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
807
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~25% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Labor Force Participation moves ~18 months before Core PCE Price Index
Watch Labor Force Participation for an early read on Core PCE Price Index.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.6%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+50%
Based on values
95% CI
+45% → +55%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
807 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
808
940
Normalized
808
940
Prepared
808
940
Aligned
807
807
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
25.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
807
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+56%
+5% stronger than no-shift baseline
Labor Force Participation shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Core PCE Price Index today line up with Labor Force Participation 18 months ago?"
783 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+50%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+56%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-30%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-44%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
134
A: 1 / B: 133
Series A
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
FRED · 808 raw → 808 prepared
Series B
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 940 raw → 940 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0406
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
60.9283
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-civpart_fred-pcepilfe_monthly_5y