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Correlation
of values
+49%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
808
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~24% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Labor Force Participation moves ~18 months before PCE Price Index
Watch Labor Force Participation for an early read on PCE Price Index.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+49%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
808 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
809
941
Normalized
809
941
Prepared
809
941
Aligned
808
808
Invalid removed
Likely range
R²(i)
24%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
808
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+55%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Labor Force Participation shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does PCE Price Index today line up with Labor Force Participation 18 months ago?"
783 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+49%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+55%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-38%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+63%
10 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
134
A: 1 / B: 133
Series A
PCE Price Index
PCEPI
FRED · 809 raw → 809 prepared
Series B
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0391
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
61.0197
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-pcepi_monthly_5y