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Correlation
of values
-70%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
305
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~49% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Labor Force Participation moves ~15 months before Job Openings
Watch Labor Force Participation for an early read on Job Openings.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-70%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
305 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
941
306
Normalized
941
306
Prepared
941
306
Aligned
305
305
Invalid removed
49%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
305
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+15 months
Correlation at this shift
-83%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Job Openings shifted 15 months earlier. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with Job Openings 15 months from now?"
283 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-70%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+15 months
-83%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+49%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+71%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-49%
118 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
637
A: 636 / B: 1
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 306 raw → 306 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-920.3555
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
64434.1497
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-jtsjol_monthly_5y