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Correlation
of values
-70%
In sync
of periods
56%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
304
These move in the same direction about 56% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~48% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Labor Force Participation moves ~15 months before Job Openings
Watch Labor Force Participation for an early read on Job Openings.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-70%
Based on values
95% CI
-75% → -63%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
304 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
940
305
Normalized
940
305
Prepared
940
305
Aligned
304
304
Invalid removed
R²(i)
48.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
304
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+15 months
Correlation at this shift
-83%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Job Openings shifted 15 months earlier. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with Job Openings 15 months from now?"
283 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-70%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+15 months
-83%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+41%
38 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+17%
31 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-50%
127 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
637
A: 636 / B: 1
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 940 raw → 940 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 305 raw → 305 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-920.3434
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
64433.3623
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-civpart_fred-jtsjol_monthly_5y