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Correlation
of values
+69%
In sync
of periods
59%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
59
These move in the same direction about 59% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~48% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Labor Force Participation moves ~5 months before Interest on Reserve Balances
Watch Labor Force Participation for an early read on Interest on Reserve Balances.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
59%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+69%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
941
1,806
Normalized
941
1,806
Prepared
941
61
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
48%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+5 months
Correlation at this shift
+83%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Interest on Reserve Balances shifted 5 months earlier. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with Interest on Reserve Balances 5 months from now?"
49 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+69%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+5 months
+83%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+57%
10 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-10%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
40 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
884
A: 882 / B: 2
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 941 raw → 941 prepared
Series B
Interest on Reserve Balances
IORB
FRED · 1,806 raw → 61 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
4.1002
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-251.9671
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-iorb_monthly_5y