SeriesMagCorrOverlapThrough
These move together about 52% of the time
Moderate positive
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Real GDP
GDPC1
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
What to Watch
Drifting from pattern
Recent correlation (-72%) is running 1.7σ away from the long-run average of +55%.
Tighter in drawdowns
Pair moves more tightly when both fall (+95%) than when both rise (+54%) — typical risk-off behaviour.
Regime-dependent
The correlation has flipped sign across time windows — not reliable as a standalone signal.
Time Series
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+55%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
312 overlapping points at this shift
Time series with Labor Force Participation at original dates
Indexed to 100 at start
Deep Dive
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Corr
+55%
Pearson correlation
95% CI
+47% → +62%
Likely range
R²
30.3%
Variance explained
Trend agreement
52.4%
Same-direction moves
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
312
Robust
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
312 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
317
938
Normalized
317
938
Prepared
317
938
Aligned
312
312
Invalid removed
Explore
The strongest positive and inverse pairs we’ve saved for each side of this comparison — good jumping-off points if this result raised a question.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+54%
92 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+95%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-31%
144 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
631
A: 5 / B: 626
Series A
GDPC1
FRED · 317 raw → 317 prepared
Series B
CIVPART
FRED · 938 raw → 938 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0003
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
60.2058
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 days ago · ID: fred:civpart|fred:gdpc1|5Y
CIVPART
Labor Force Participation
Strongest positive