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Correlation
of values
-74%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
244
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~55% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Labor Force Participation moves ~18 months before US Dollar Index
Watch Labor Force Participation for an early read on US Dollar Index.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-74%
Based on values
95% CI
-79% → -68%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
244 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
940
5,121
Normalized
940
5,121
Prepared
940
246
Aligned
244
244
Invalid removed
R²(i)
54.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
244
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-81%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with US Dollar Index 18 months from now?"
219 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-74%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-81%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
34 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+10%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
166 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
698
A: 696 / B: 2
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 940 raw → 940 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXEMEGS
FRED · 5,121 raw → 246 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-7.5084
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
588.5060
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-civpart_fred-dtwexemegs_monthly_5y