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Correlation
of values
-71%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
247
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~50% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Labor Force Participation moves ~18 months before US Dollar Index
Watch Labor Force Participation for an early read on US Dollar Index.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-71%
Based on values
95% CI
-77% → -64%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
247 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
943
5,184
Normalized
943
5,184
Prepared
943
249
Aligned
247
247
Invalid removed
R²(i)
50%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
247
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-83%
+12% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with US Dollar Index 18 months from now?"
219 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-71%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-83%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-21%
38 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
39 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-43%
168 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
698
A: 696 / B: 2
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 943 raw → 943 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,184 raw → 249 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-6.1176
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
494.5367
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-dtwexbgs_monthly_5y