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Correlation
of values
-65%
In sync
of periods
43%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
244
These move in the same direction about 43% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~42% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Labor Force Participation moves ~18 months before US Dollar Index
Watch Labor Force Participation for an early read on US Dollar Index.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
43.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-65%
Based on values
95% CI
-72% → -57%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
244 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
940
5,121
Normalized
940
5,121
Prepared
940
246
Aligned
244
244
Invalid removed
R²(i)
42.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
244
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-84%
+19% stronger than no-shift baseline
US Dollar Index shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with US Dollar Index 18 months from now?"
219 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-65%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-84%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-31%
40 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-0%
36 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-33%
166 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
698
A: 696 / B: 2
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 940 raw → 940 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXAFEGS
FRED · 5,121 raw → 246 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-4.9611
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
416.7775
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-civpart_fred-dtwexafegs_monthly_5y