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Correlation
of values
-65%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
555
These move opposite each other about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~43% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-65%
Based on values
95% CI
-70% → -60%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
555 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
939
11,628
Normalized
939
11,628
Prepared
939
557
Aligned
555
555
Invalid removed
R²(i)
42.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
555
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-65%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
555 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-65%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-65%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-28%
64 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+5%
42 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-46%
143 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
386
A: 384 / B: 2
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 939 raw → 939 prepared
Series B
USD/ZAR Exchange Rate
DEXSFUS
FRED · 11,628 raw → 557 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.0017
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
137.3745
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-dexsfus_monthly_5y