Loading market view
Loading market view
Loading correlations
Correlation
of values
+22%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
543
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~5% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Labor Force Participation moves ~18 months before USD/CNY Exchange Rate
Watch Labor Force Participation for an early read on USD/CNY Exchange Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+22%
Based on values
95% CI
+14% → +30%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
543 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
939
11,325
Normalized
939
11,325
Prepared
939
545
Aligned
543
543
Invalid removed
R²(i)
4.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
543
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+30%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CNY Exchange Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with USD/CNY Exchange Rate 18 months from now?"
525 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+22%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+30%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-7%
61 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+14%
63 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-29%
125 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
398
A: 396 / B: 2
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 939 raw → 939 prepared
Series B
USD/CNY Exchange Rate
DEXCHUS
FRED · 11,325 raw → 545 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
9
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2523
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-10.0792
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-dexchus_monthly_5y