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Correlation
of values
+47%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-08
667
These move in the same direction about 46% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~22% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
USD/CAD Exchange Rate moves ~18 months before Labor Force Participation
Watch USD/CAD Exchange Rate for an early read on Labor Force Participation.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
46%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+47%
Based on values
95% CI
+41% → +53%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
667 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
943
13,968
Normalized
943
13,968
Prepared
943
669
Aligned
667
667
Invalid removed
R²(i)
22%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
667
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+54%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
USD/CAD Exchange Rate shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with USD/CAD Exchange Rate 18 months ago?"
639 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+47%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+54%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-51%
11 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+31%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
33 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
278
A: 276 / B: 2
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 943 raw → 943 prepared
Series B
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
DEXCAUS
FRED · 13,968 raw → 669 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
10
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0367
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-1.1258
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-dexcaus_monthly_5y