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Correlation
of values
-78%
In sync
of periods
46%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
375
These move opposite each other about 46% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~60% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently tighter than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
45.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-78%
Based on values
95% CI
-81% → -73%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
375 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
939
7,868
Normalized
939
7,868
Prepared
939
377
Aligned
375
375
Invalid removed
R²(i)
60.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
375
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
-78%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
375 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-78%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
-78%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+13%
55 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+1%
46 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
148 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
566
A: 564 / B: 2
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 939 raw → 939 prepared
Series B
USD/BRL Exchange Rate
DEXBZUS
FRED · 7,868 raw → 377 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
5
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.5759
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
40.0791
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-dexbzus_monthly_5y