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Correlation
of values
-61%
In sync
of periods
52%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
486
These move in the same direction about 52% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount in the opposite direction (~38% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
WTI Crude Oil moves ~18 months before Labor Force Participation
Watch WTI Crude Oil for an early read on Labor Force Participation.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
52%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-61%
Based on values
95% CI
-67% → -56%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
486 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
942
10,231
Normalized
942
10,231
Prepared
942
488
Aligned
486
486
Invalid removed
R²(i)
38%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
486
Robust
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-69%
+7% stronger than no-shift baseline
WTI Crude Oil shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Labor Force Participation today line up with WTI Crude Oil 18 months ago?"
459 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-61%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-69%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-10%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
-21%
13 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-56%
49 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
458
A: 456 / B: 2
Series A
Labor Force Participation
CIVPART
FRED · 942 raw → 942 prepared
Series B
WTI Crude Oil
DCOILWTICO
FRED · 10,231 raw → 488 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-9.8457
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
687.7635
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 2 weeks ago · ID: fred-civpart_fred-dcoilwtico_monthly_5y