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Correlation
of % moves
+46%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
daysdays · through 2026-07-07
1,252
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~21% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+46%
Based on % moves
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
1,252 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
1,254
2,512
Normalized
1,254
2,512
Prepared
1,254
2,512
Aligned
1,252
1,252
Invalid removed
21%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
1,251
Deep
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+46%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
1,251 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+46%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+24%
58 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+52%
44 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-70%
36 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,262
A: 2 / B: 1260
Series A
Cincinnati Financial Corp (CINF)
CINF
Stock · 1,254 raw → 1,254 prepared
Series B
S&P 500
SP500
FRED · 2,512 raw → 2,512 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
13
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3044
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0003
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-sp500_stock-cinf_daily_5y