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The Cigna Group (CI) vs Fed Funds Rate
Correlation
of % moves
+27%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~7% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Fed Funds Rate moves ~10 months before CI
Watch Fed Funds Rate for an early read on CI.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+27%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+2% → +50%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,254
862
Normalized
1,254
862
Prepared
60
862
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
7.4%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-10 months
Correlation at this shift
-33%
+6% stronger than no-shift baseline
Fed Funds Rate shifted 10 months later. Reads: "Does The Cigna Group (CI) today line up with Fed Funds Rate 10 months ago?"
48 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+27%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-10 months
-33%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+20%
12 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+35%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-39%
39 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
804
A: 1 / B: 803
Series A
The Cigna Group (CI)
CI
Stock · 1,254 raw → 60 prepared
Series B
Fed Funds Rate
FEDFUNDS
FRED · 862 raw → 862 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
8
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
1.1109
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0632
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-fedfunds_stock-ci_monthly_5y