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CF Industries Holding, Inc. (CF) vs PPI: All Commodities
Correlation
of % moves
+35%
In sync
of periods
64%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 64% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~12% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
CF moves ~14 months before PPI: All Commodities
Watch CF for an early read on PPI: All Commodities.
Decouples in drawdowns
The relationship weakens when both prices are falling — don't count on this pair as a hedge under stress.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63.8%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+35%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+10% → +56%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
1,360
Normalized
1,255
1,360
Prepared
61
1,360
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12.2%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+14 months
Correlation at this shift
-49%
+15% stronger than no-shift baseline
PPI: All Commodities shifted 14 months earlier. Reads: "Does CF Industries Holding, Inc. (CF) today line up with PPI: All Commodities 14 months from now?"
44 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+35%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+14 months
-49%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+46%
23 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+4%
14 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
1,303
A: 2 / B: 1301
Series A
CF Industries Holding, Inc. (CF)
CF
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
PPI: All Commodities
PPIACO
FRED · 1,360 raw → 1,360 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
17
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0535
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0029
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ppiaco_stock-cf_monthly_5y