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Correlation
of % moves
+33%
In sync
of periods
63%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
58
These move in the same direction about 63% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~11% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
CF moves ~17 months before US CPI
Watch CF for an early read on US CPI.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
63%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+33%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+7% → +54%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,253
954
Normalized
1,253
954
Prepared
61
954
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
11%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
56
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+17 months
Correlation at this shift
+51%
+18% stronger than no-shift baseline
US CPI shifted 17 months earlier. Reads: "Does CF Industries Holding, Inc. (CF) today line up with US CPI 17 months from now?"
31 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+33%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+17 months
+51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+27%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
21 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
899
A: 3 / B: 896
Series A
CF Industries Holding, Inc. (CF)
CF
Stock · 1,253 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 954 raw → 954 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0117
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0032
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_stock-cf_monthly_5y