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Correlation
of % moves
+31%
In sync
of periods
61%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
58
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~10% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
CF moves ~2 months before US CPI
Watch CF for an early read on US CPI.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
60.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+31%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+6% → +53%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
58 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
951
Normalized
1,255
951
Prepared
61
951
Aligned
58
58
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
9.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.05
Statistical confidence
Data points
58
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+2 months
Correlation at this shift
+46%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
US CPI shifted 2 months earlier. Reads: "Does CF Industries Holding, Inc. (CF) today line up with US CPI 2 months from now?"
52 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+31%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+2 months
+46%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+34%
32 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
2 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-19%
22 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
896
A: 3 / B: 893
Series A
CF Industries Holding, Inc. (CF)
CF
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
US CPI
CPIAUCSL
FRED · 951 raw → 951 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0105
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
0.0034
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-cpiaucsl_stock-cf_monthly_5y