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CF Industries Holding, Inc. (CF) vs Sticky Price CPI
Correlation
of % moves
+36%
In sync
of periods
57%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
59
These move in the same direction about 57% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~13% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
56.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+36%
Based on % moves
95% CI
+11% → +56%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
59 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,255
700
Normalized
1,255
700
Prepared
61
700
Aligned
59
59
Invalid removed
R²(i)
12.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.01
Statistical confidence
Data points
59
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+36%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
58 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+36%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+36%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+6%
16 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+20%
17 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-54%
25 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
643
A: 2 / B: 641
Series A
CF Industries Holding, Inc. (CF)
CF
Stock · 1,255 raw → 61 prepared
Series B
Sticky Price CPI
CORESTICKM159SFRBATL
FRED · 700 raw → 700 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
11
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.2165
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-0.0004
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-corestickm159sfrbatl_stock-cf_monthly_5y