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Correlation
of values
+52%
In sync
of periods
47%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
244
These move in the same direction about 47% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~27% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
47%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+52%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
244 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
244
15,162
Normalized
244
15,162
Prepared
244
499
Aligned
244
244
Invalid removed
27%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
244
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+52%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
244 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+52%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+52%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+41%
106 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+88%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
131 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
255
A: 0 / B: 255
Series A
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 244 raw → 244 prepared
Series B
US Economic Policy Uncertainty
USEPUINDXD
FRED · 15,162 raw → 499 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
33
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
9.9775
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-126.1631
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-usepuindxd_monthly_5y