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Correlation
of values
-51%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
242
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~26% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~18 months before U-6 Unemployment Rate
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on U-6 Unemployment Rate.
Holds in both up and down markets
The relationship is similar whether prices are rising or falling — reliable in both directions.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-51%
Based on values
95% CI
-59% → -41%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
242 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
243
388
Normalized
243
388
Prepared
243
388
Aligned
242
242
Invalid removed
R²(i)
25.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
242
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-64%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
U-6 Unemployment Rate shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Avg Hourly Earnings today line up with U-6 Unemployment Rate 18 months from now?"
217 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-51%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-64%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+96%
78 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+95%
6 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-1%
156 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
147
A: 1 / B: 146
Series A
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 243 raw → 243 prepared
Series B
U-6 Unemployment Rate
U6RATE
FRED · 388 raw → 388 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-0.3641
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
20.3645
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-u6rate_monthly_5y