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Correlation
of values
+37%
In sync
of periods
54%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
243
These move in the same direction about 54% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly line up (~14% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~18 months before 5Y Breakeven Inflation
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on 5Y Breakeven Inflation.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
54.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+37%
Based on values
95% CI
+26% → +47%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
243 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
5,862
243
Normalized
5,862
243
Prepared
282
243
Aligned
243
243
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
13.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
243
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+51%
+14% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does 5Y Breakeven Inflation today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 18 months ago?"
225 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+37%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+51%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-1%
124 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-26%
115 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
39
A: 39 / B: 0
Series A
5Y Breakeven Inflation
T5YIE
FRED · 5,862 raw → 282 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 243 raw → 243 prepared
Sign agreement
98.8%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
3.1771
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
20.7673
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-t5yie_monthly_5y