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Correlation
of values
-60%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
243
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~36% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~18 months before 10Y-3M Yield Spread
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on 10Y-3M Yield Spread.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.2%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-60%
Based on values
95% CI
-67% → -51%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
243 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
11,110
243
Normalized
11,110
243
Prepared
534
243
Aligned
243
243
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
35.9%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
243
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-78%
+18% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does 10Y-3M Yield Spread today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 18 months ago?"
225 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-60%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-78%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+2%
115 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-15%
124 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
291
A: 291 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-3M Yield Spread
T10Y3M
FRED · 11,110 raw → 534 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 243 raw → 243 prepared
Sign agreement
81.1%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.2471
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
29.5995
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-t10y3m_monthly_5y