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Correlation
of values
-57%
In sync
of periods
45%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
243
These move in the same direction about 45% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely mirror each other (~33% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~18 months before 10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on 10Y-2Y Yield Spread.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44.7%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-57%
Based on values
95% CI
-65% → -48%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
243 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
12,501
243
Normalized
12,501
243
Prepared
601
243
Aligned
243
243
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
32.8%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
243
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
-75%
+18% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does 10Y-2Y Yield Spread today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 18 months ago?"
225 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-57%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
-75%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
-16%
102 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
3 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-30%
137 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
358
A: 358 / B: 0
Series A
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
T10Y2Y
FRED · 12,501 raw → 601 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 243 raw → 243 prepared
Sign agreement
84.4%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-2.9581
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
29.8262
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-t10y2y_monthly_5y