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Correlation
of values
-30%
In sync
of periods
44%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-06
244
These move in the same direction about 44% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~9% of the pattern is shared).
A faint pattern — interesting as colour, not strong enough to act on alone.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~17 months before St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on St. Louis Financial Stress Index.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
44%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-30%
Based on values
95% CI
N/A
Likely range
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
244 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
1,696
244
Normalized
1,696
244
Prepared
391
244
Aligned
244
244
Invalid removed
9%
Variance explained
Significance
N/A
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
244
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-17 months
Correlation at this shift
-44%
+13% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 17 months later. Reads: "Does St. Louis Financial Stress Index today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 17 months ago?"
227 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-30%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-17 months
-44%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+3%
100 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+73%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-36%
138 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
147
A: 147 / B: 0
Series A
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
STLFSI4
FRED · 1,696 raw → 391 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 244 raw → 244 prepared
Sign agreement
32.8%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
7
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.2734
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
26.9227
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 months ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-stlfsi4_monthly_5y