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Correlation
of values
+42%
In sync
of periods
49%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-05
171
These move in the same direction about 49% of the time
Their swing sizes loosely line up (~18% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping looser
The recent pattern is looser than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Overnight Reverse Repo moves ~18 months before Avg Hourly Earnings
Watch Overnight Reverse Repo for an early read on Avg Hourly Earnings.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
49.0%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+42%
Based on values
95% CI
+29% → +54%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
171 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
3,258
243
Normalized
3,258
243
Prepared
179
243
Aligned
171
171
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
17.6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
171
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
+63%
+21% stronger than no-shift baseline
Avg Hourly Earnings shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Overnight Reverse Repo today line up with Avg Hourly Earnings 18 months from now?"
136 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+42%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
+63%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+35%
72 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-6%
82 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
80
A: 8 / B: 72
Series A
Overnight Reverse Repo
RRPONTSYD
FRED · 3,258 raw → 179 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 243 raw → 243 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
2
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0028
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
27.7681
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-rrpontsyd_monthly_5y