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Correlation
of values
-25%
In sync
of periods
55%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-07
245
These move in the same direction about 55% of the time
Their swing sizes only faintly mirror each other (~6% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Slipping tighter
The recent pattern is tighter than its long-run baseline — keep an eye on whether this sticks.
Avg Hourly Earnings moves ~18 months before Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
Watch Avg Hourly Earnings for an early read on Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
55%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
-25%
Based on values
95% CI
-36% → -13%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
245 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
246
710
Normalized
246
710
Prepared
246
710
Aligned
245
245
Invalid removed
R²(i)
6%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points(i)
245
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
+18 months
Correlation at this shift
-32%
+8% stronger than no-shift baseline
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities shifted 18 months earlier. Reads: "Does Avg Hourly Earnings today line up with Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities 18 months from now?"
227 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
-25%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
+18 months
-32%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+20%
116 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+99%
5 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
+4%
123 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
466
A: 1 / B: 465
Series A
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 246 raw → 246 prepared
Series B
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities
RECPROUSM156N
FRED · 710 raw → 710 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
-1.1791
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
39.3725
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 4 months ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-recprousm156n_monthly_5y