SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+100%
of values
In sync
92%
of periods
History
241
days · through 2026-03-01
These move in the same direction about 92% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~99% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Rock solid
The relationship barely changes from period to period — treat it as a reliable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
92.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+100%
Based on values
95% CI
+100% → +100%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
241 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
807
241
Normalized
807
241
Prepared
807
241
Aligned
241
241
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
99.5%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
241
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+100%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
241 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+100%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+100%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+51%
215 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-67%
25 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
566
A: 566 / B: 0
Series A
Core PCE Price Index
PCEPILFE
FRED · 807 raw → 807 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 241 raw → 241 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.3888
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-12.4406
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-pcepilfe_5y