SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+96%
of values
In sync
61%
of periods
History
241
weeks · through 2026-09
These move in the same direction about 61% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~93% of the pattern is shared).
A real but noisy link — useful as context, risky as a standalone signal.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
61.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+96%
Based on values
95% CI
+95% → +97%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
241 paired data points survived the weekly window.
Raw input
13,927
241
Normalized
13,927
241
Prepared
2,883
241
Aligned
241
241
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
93.1%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
241
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -12 to 12 weeks.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+96%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
241 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+96%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+96%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+42%
139 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-48%
97 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
2,642
A: 2642 / B: 0
Series A
NASDAQCOM
FRED · 13,927 raw → 2,883 prepared
Series B
CES0500000003
FRED · 241 raw → 241 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
3
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0008
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
20.7453
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 5 hours ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-nasdaqcom_5y