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Correlation
of values
+77%
In sync
of periods
51%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
242
These move in the same direction about 51% of the time
When one swings, the other often swings by a similar amount (~60% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
What to Watch
Job Openings moves ~18 months before Avg Hourly Earnings
Watch Job Openings for an early read on Avg Hourly Earnings.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
51.3%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+77%
Based on values
95% CI
+72% → +82%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
242 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
243
305
Normalized
243
305
Prepared
243
305
Aligned
242
242
Invalid removed
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
60.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
242
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
-18 months
Correlation at this shift
+87%
+9% stronger than no-shift baseline
Job Openings shifted 18 months later. Reads: "Does Avg Hourly Earnings today line up with Job Openings 18 months ago?"
224 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+77%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
-18 months
+87%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+26%
116 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
4 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-57%
121 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
64
A: 1 / B: 63
Series A
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 243 raw → 243 prepared
Series B
Job Openings
JTSJOL
FRED · 305 raw → 305 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
15
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
372.4793
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
-4059.2025
Linear regression intercept.
Saved last month · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-jtsjol_monthly_5y