SeriesMagCorrSyncOverlapThrough
Correlation
+99%
of values
In sync
86%
of periods
History
79
days · through 2025-10-01
These move in the same direction about 86% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~99% of the pattern is shared).
Strong enough to use as a signal — check the stability and regime notes below before relying on it.
Time Series
On a log scale so equal % moves take equal vertical space — best when one series has grown much faster than the other.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
85.9%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+99%
Based on values
95% CI
+99% → +100%
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
79 paired data points survived the daily window.
Raw input
240
241
Normalized
240
241
Prepared
240
241
Aligned
79
79
Invalid removed
Explore
Top 5 by absolute correlation
Ranked across both sides of this comparison using the same dense row format as the single-symbol correlations view.
Likely range of correlation
R²(i)
99.0%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
79
Thin
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -6 to 6 days.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+99%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
79 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+99%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+99%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+84%
67 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
N/A
0 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-89%
11 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
323
A: 161 / B: 162
Series A
Federal Debt
GFDEBTN
FRED · 240 raw → 240 prepared
Series B
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 241 raw → 241 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
1
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
0.0000
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
15.2482
Linear regression intercept.
Saved yesterday · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-gfdebtn_5y