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Correlation
of values
+86%
In sync
of periods
50%
History
monthsmonths · through 2026-04
242
These move in the same direction about 50% of the time
When one swings, the other almost always swings by a closely matched amount (~75% of the pattern is shared).
Roughly random — these don't track each other in a meaningful way.
Both lines start at the same point — easy to compare when growth rates are similar.
What to Watch
Unusual right now
Recently looser than usual — the pair is behaving differently than its long-run pattern.
Tighter in drawdowns
The relationship is stronger when both prices are falling than when both are rising — typical risk-off behaviour.
Flips between sync and inverse
Sometimes the two move together, sometimes opposite. Don't treat this as a stable signal.
Advanced
Statistics
In sync(i)
50.4%
Headline metric
Movement correlation(i)
+86%
Based on values
95% CI
+83% → +89%
Likely range of correlation
Pipeline
Pipeline Summary
242 paired data points survived the monthly window.
Raw input
242
5,107
Normalized
242
5,107
Prepared
242
245
Aligned
242
242
Invalid removed
R²(i)
74.7%
Variance explained
Significance
p < 0.001
Statistical confidence
Data points
242
Usable
Time-Shifted Correlation
See how correlation changes when one series is offset in time. A taller bar at a non-zero shift means the two move together better when one leads the other — that's a potential lead/lag signal.
Correlation by shift
Click a bar to inspect. Range: -18 to 18 months.
Selected shift
No shift
Correlation at this shift
+86%
No shift — both series at their actual dates.
242 overlapping points at this shift
Baseline
+86%
No-shift correlation, matching the main time-series chart above.
Peak shift
No shift
+86%
A non-zero peak suggests one series lines up better when shifted against the other.
Stability
How the correlation evolves over time. A stable line means the relationship is reliable; large swings signal regime-dependent behavior.
Do They Crash Together?
How these series behave when markets are rising, falling, or diverging. A correlation that holds in drawdowns is very different from one that only works in rallies.
Both Rising
+11%
111 periods · Return correlation when both series rose
Both Falling
+45%
7 periods · Return correlation when both series fell
Diverging
-33%
123 periods · Return correlation when series moved apart
Scatter
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Duplicates removed
0
A: 0 / B: 0
Alignment drops
3
A: 0 / B: 3
Series A
Avg Hourly Earnings
CES0500000003
FRED · 242 raw → 242 prepared
Series B
US Dollar Index
DTWEXBGS
FRED · 5,107 raw → 245 prepared
Sign agreement
100.0%
How often both values share the same sign.
Zero crossings
4
Estimated crossover points between normalized spreads.
Slope
2.1861
Linear regression slope.
Intercept
47.6770
Linear regression intercept.
Saved 3 weeks ago · ID: fred-ces0500000003_fred-dtwexbgs_monthly_5y